Small breweries were already struggling before the Trump administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on foreign steel and aluminum last week. Several Massachusetts brewers say they’re worried about how price spikes for materials will harm their businesses.

Breweries have yet to hear from manufacturers how the tariff will affect pricing for cans and steel equipment such as kegs and fermenting tanks. But the numbers don’t look good for an industry facing economic headwinds.

“If everything goes up [to] 25 percent, that’s all the margin for a small business,” said Matt Malloy, co-founder of Dorchester Brewing Co on Massachusetts Avenue. “It becomes a push, and then it becomes not worth it any longer.”

Demand for beer in the US decreased during the pandemic and hasn’t recovered, with sales peaking in 2019 and declining since.  Shutdowns led to temporary closures of tap rooms, and inflation has driven up the cost of raw materials.

Brewers will likely pass on the new tariff costs to consumers by increasing beer prices, some say while noting a lessening demand for beer products .

“It’s insult to injury for a lot of people,” said Adam Romanow, founder of Castle Island Brewing in South Boston and Norwood. “To see another potentially significant increase both to our operating materials, like cans, and to equipment that we have to invest in to grow is certainly going to create additional challenges for the industry.”

During his first term, President Trump imposed a 10 percent increase on aluminum tariffs under very different circumstances: In 2018, the beer industry was thriving, and that tariff exempted Canada, where most aluminum comes from. President Biden kept the tariff in place.

Under the new tariff, the stakes are higher, Malloy said. Sitting on the top floor of Dorchester Brewing, which overlooks downtown Boston, he took out his calculator to do the math: the aluminum in each beer can costs about 12 cents. A 25 percent tariff on Canadian aluminum will add 3 cents.

A case of beer at Dorchester Brewing — which has a profit margin of $3 to $6 — might cost around 72 cents more to produce.

“That might not seem like a lot — that’s a lot,” he said. “Who’s going to pay for that? The end consumer or the small business. If the small business doesn’t see value in staying around, they’re just going to fold.”

Chris Lohring, founder of Notch Brewing in Brighton and Salem, said he anticipates the tariffs will add $50,000 to $75,000 worth of expenses a year that his company can’t cover without raising prices.

“The only thing we can do –– so we can pay our staff a living wage, so that we can make sure we have our breweries operating efficiently –– is pass that onto the consumer,” he said. “Our customers are already at the top of the limit where they want to be spending for craft beer.”

Lohring noted that the stated goal of the 2018 tariff –– to increase aluminum production in the United States –– never materialized. There are only five American smelting plants, and a statement from the Aluminum Association said this is not enough to supply the industry.

“If you’re asking the United States now to provide everything, that’s going to come at an expense that the consumer is not willing to spend,” Lohring said.

An alternative to decreasing reliance on imports would be to recycle more, according to experts. Only 43 percent of cans were recycled in the United States in 2023, with the majority ending up in landfills.

“It would be better for business, for independence from foreign aluminum, it would be better for the environment,” Lohring said. “Somehow that makes too much sense for Trump.”

To weather the tariffs, some people have proposed turning back to glass bottles, but Lohring said most brewers have shifted their infrastructure to cans, which are cheaper and more environmentally friendly. Most breweries aren’t able to bottle even if they wanted to, since they no longer have the equipment.

The tariff could also make it harder for smaller breweries to grow, because of higher prices for stainless steel tanks. That doesn’t sit well with brewers like Lohring.

“Small businesses are at the whim of an administration that was put in place through billionaires,” he said. “It’s not a good feeling.”

Malloy is worried about what else is coming from the new administration.

If Trump imposes tariffs on European products, as he has signalled he might do, the cost of the malt Dorchester Brewing Co. imports from Germany could also rise. Malloy said he can only absorb so much before his business becomes untenable.

“The margin for smaller breweries continues to erode,” he said. “and the demand for beer is less and less … it’s a really hard combination for breweries.”

This story, part of a partnership between WBUR and the Boston University Department of Journalism, was first published by WBUR on Feb. 21. The Reporter and WBUR share content through a media partnership.