Reporter's Notebook: Pundits will watch for tell-tale mayoral maneuvers in new year

“Politics,” The Atlantic magazine’s Alex Madrigal wrote, “is desperate and raw and exhausting, yet on TV it looks so polished and prim. It’s a knock-down, drag-out war in which everyone has to fight in their Sunday best.”

Locally, it may be more like their Filene’s Basement best. Much of this year’s attention will be focused on the presidential race and the battle for the U.S. Senate, but City Hall and Beacon Hill will still be places to keep a wary and cynical eye on.

2011 proved to be a bridge year, with the field of Democratic candidates hungrily angling to take on U.S. Sen. Scott Brown expanding and contracting, Republicans unhappily seesawing between White House contenders, and municipal races ominously foreshadowing potential elections down the road.

At the State House, legislation legalizing casinos in Massachusetts finally passed and included a provision that allows the City Council to move to a city-wide referendum on a Boston casino. If past gambling debates on Beacon Hill are any indication, casinos will probably suck the proverbial oxygen – at least, the few molecules that are left after some Wednesdays in the Iannella Chamber – out of City Hall.

Some, like District 5 Councillor Rob Consalvo, may disagree. Councillors will largely focus on schools, public safety and city services, he said. “That’s what we’re here for.”

The presidential race and an already bruising battle for U.S. Senate aside, here are a few of the storylines likely to play out.

Menino v. Connolly: It’s the question reporters ask in the backroom of Doyle’s in Jamaica Plain, City Hall aides ponder inside their offices and developers wonder while mapping out potential projects that need his approval: Will Menino run for a sixth term in 2013?

An answer is unlikely to surface any time soon. So whether he’s gearing up for another campaign or thinking about taking a pass on another four years, his relationship with the City Council, and John Connolly in particular, will be something to watch closely.

Connolly, widely viewed as a top contender for the mayoralty should Menino decline to run for re-election, emerged from the 2011 election with around $100,000 left in the bank. The chair of the City Council’s education committee, Connolly ran aggressively last fall, and several pieces of campaign literature prominently noted his exposure of the existence of expired food in Boston Public Schools freezers. While Connolly’s discovery angered the Menino administration and annoyed his equally ambitious colleagues, it also garnered plenty of favorable press coverage.

Connolly was largely shielded from electoral repercussions, since a higher priority in the fall was preventing former City Councillor At-Large Michael Flaherty, a Menino foe, from returning to the 13-member council. But Connolly also came in third place in the race for the four at-large slots, and his candidate (and fellow attorney) Tim Schofield came in last place in December’s special election to replace former state Sen. Steven Tolman, a Brighton Democrat. (Menino’s political organization also had a mixed bag last year: Flaherty was unsuccessful and the incumbents were reelected, but the council candidate Menino backed in Dorchester, John O’Toole, lost to Frank Baker. In the senate special election, Menino backed the same candidate as Connolly.) How much Connolly will engage – and the way he will engage – the Menino administration are questions that will be answered sooner than ones about the long-time mayor’s future.

Chuck Turner’s last chance at revenge: The first and second place finishes in Nov. 2011 of City Councillors Ayanna Pressley and Felix Arroyo, respectively, were hailed as evidence of the power of communities of color and the limits of conventional wisdom, which had Flaherty winning back his old seat. But their wins also affirmed the weakness of former District 7 Councillor Chuck Turner’s supporters, who howled in protest after the pair agreed with nine of their colleagues and booted Turner off the council after he was convicted of bribery. But while Turner, a Green Rainbow Party member, was writing rants from his jail cell, Pressley and Arroyo were on their way to re-election by a wide margin.

Turner still has a chance at a last laugh: He has sued the City Council, saying they didn’t have the authority to expel him, and the lawsuit has been kicked up to the Supreme Judicial Court. The case is expected to be argued in February.

City Council Redistricting: Voting activists will be closely watching what happens next in the redrawing of the boundaries of the nine City Council districts. District 2 Councillor Bill Linehan created an uproar when he proposed a draft map that sliced up Chinatown, Mission Hill and left Michael Ross outside of District 8, which he has represented since 1999. Since then, the redistricting committee has been attempting to slog towards a consensus. Whatever the outcome, somebody will end up unhappy, Linehan has said, though with Ross, redistricting could become somewhat of a moot point since he is considering a run for outgoing Congressman Barney Frank’s seat.

The budget: On Beacon Hill, state lawmakers have warned the recession-induced nightmare may still not be over. House Speaker Robert DeLeo told reporters this week that he expects a “little more belt-tightening as we have in the past.” He added: “That’s going to require a whole lot of discipline, probably some more cuts are going to have to be made.” That will also affect municipal budgets, which are still hurting from cuts in previous budgets and local aid. And it’s one of several reasons in Boston, city councillors were quick to sign onto Consalvo’s proposal to allow advertising on some city-run websites as a way to generate revenue without reaching into taxpayer pockets.

Casino referendum – ward or city-wide: The City Council will be able to decide whether the entire city should weigh in on a casino in Boston, or if it should be just the ward the casino would be located in. The chair of a special committee on gambling is East Boston Councillor Sal LaMattina, who prefers keeping it to the ward he lives in, Ward 1, where Suffolk Downs is located. Stephen Murphy, newly elected to a second term as City Council president, appointed LaMattina to the job. Murphy said he wanted to see the process play out before saying whether he supported a city-wide or ward-only referendum.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Check out updates to Boston’s political scene at The Lit Drop, located at dotnews.com/litdrop. Material from State House News Service was used in this report. Email us at newseditor@dotnews.com and follow us on Twitter: @LitDrop and @gintautasd.


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